Wednesday, February 29th 2012
Published by: StreetAuthority (Austin, Texas)
Warning: 12 Popular Companies that Could Go
Bankrupt Very Soon
注意：12間可能即將破產的知名企業
In the article below I reveal the names and
ticker symbols of 12 widely-held companies that could go bankrupt in the near
future. But first I need to give you a
bit of background...
在篇文章後面，我公布了12間上市公司名稱與股票代號，而他們可能在不久的將來裡破產。不過我要先背景說明一下。
Every year, our independent research team
here at StreetAuthority looks over thousands of potential stock picks. We spend
countless hours analyzing companies, looking for any signs that a stock is
either a good or bad investment.
每年，我們在《StreetAuthority》的獨立研究團隊會檢視數千家潛力股。我們花費了無數的小時在分析這些資料，檢視各種數據來了解他們值不值得投資。
Most of the companies we research have both
bullish and bearish factors to consider. But in a few rare instances --
literally less than 1% of the time -- we find a handful of stocks that boast
some of the best business models on earth. These rare companies enjoy huge
sustainable competitive advantages, pristine balance sheets, ample cash flow,
and more often than not, they pay healthy dividends. When we find rare gems
like these, we like to buy these stocks and hold them forever. In fact, we
recently published an entire presentation on our 10 best "Forever"
stocks, and it has become the single most popular piece of research in our
company's decade-long history.
我們研究的公司裡，大部分都會有考量多方與空方的因素。不過在有些極小的比例—一般來說是小於1%--我們會發現手頭上的這支股票正以全球最佳的商業模式在成長。這些稀少的公司擁有源源不絕的競爭優勢、亮麗的財務報表、穩定的現金流，而更難得的，他們有穩定而健康股利分紅。當我們發現這些如同珍貴的寶石般的公司。我們會想買進並且持有他們的股票直到永遠。事實上，我們最近發表的報告書中就有提到10間應該永遠持有的股票，而這也是10年來我們公司所公布的研究就最受歡迎的一篇文章之一。
But sometimes we find companies that fall
on the other side of the spectrum... companies that are in such poor shape that
they are at risk of going bankrupt. These companies often sport unnaturally
high debt levels compared to their capital base, and we think you should avoid
these stocks at all costs. If by some means they've already ended up in your
portfolio, you might want to consider dumping them now.
不過，我們有時也會發現在天平上失衡的公司…這些公司體質不良而有破產的風險，一般來說，這些公司在相對於他們的資本基礎上，會出現不尋常提高負債的比例的變動。
Below you'll find a list of a dozen
companies that I believe are at risk of failing.
以下你會看到清單裡列出一打的公司，而我相信他們正處於危險之中。
By far, this is the most controversial
article I've ever published. I'm obviously not making any friends on Wall
Street by exposing these names, and my publisher has already fielded a number
of angry phone calls from some of the companies that appear on the list below.
目前為止，這是我發表過最有爭議的文章。而且我絕對不會因為公布這些名字而在華爾街交上任何朋友。被列出的公司也打了好幾通憤怒的電話給我的出版商
That said, since I'm continuing to publish
this information for the benefit of our valued StreetAuthority readers, I want
to make sure that I cover ALL of my bases here.
所以，既然我是為了《StreetAuthority》讀者的利益而公布這些訊息，那我就該告知我的立論基礎何在。
First, there's a difference between a
company that's "at risk" of failing and a company that's
"guaranteed" to fail. The stocks I profile in this article are
"at risk" of failing -- they're not "guaranteed" to fail.
In fact, many of the stocks on my list below may not fail.
首先，「處在風險」的公司與「肯定失敗」的定義是不同的。我在這篇文章裡提到的公司都是「處在風險」而不是保證他們「肯定失敗」。而事實上，許多我清單列到的公司也沒有真的倒下去。
Second, the metric I'm using to determine a
stock's level of "risk" is called the "current portion of
long-term debt." Specifically, I'm looking for companies that have debts
due within the next 12 months that exceed the total cash balance that each
company has on hand. This metric has proven to be a highly accurate indicator
of a company's health. In fact, it's already helped me correctly identify
several "at risk" stocks before they went on to fail. That's why I
use it.
第二，我使用的測量股票「風險」指標叫作「當前到期之長期負債」。更清楚地說，就是我注意這些公司比較他們手頭的現金收支來了解，可否足夠清償接下來12個月裡會到期的債務。對於企業的健康度的檢視，這是一個具有高度準確性指標。事實上，我之前計算出「處在風險」公司中，許多後來也真的發生財務危機而倒閉。所以這也是我使用的原因之一。
However, like any other financial metric
out there, the "current portion of long-term debt" has its
limitations. Although a company might have a high level of debt coming due in
the next year, it does not guarantee that it will fail.
但是，就像其他財務指標一樣。「當前到期之長期負債」也是有它的限制性。雖然公司會在接下來的一年裡會面臨數量龐大的到期債務。也不代表他一定會倒閉。
I'll explain more about this later in
today's article. In the meantime, let's get started...
接下來的文章裡我會再進一步解釋，先讓我們開始吧…
During the past generation, a reasonable
level of debt has always been seen as appropriate, because balance sheets were
able to withstand a typical recession. Yet all that changed in 2008. GM's
(NYSE: GM) debt load crashed the company, forcing it into bankruptcy, while
many other companies such as GE (NYSE: GE), Ford Motor (NYSE: F), Hertz (NYSE:
HTZ) and Domino's Pizza (NYSE: DPZ) saw their stocks plunge on fears a
bankruptcy filing would be necessary if economic conditions worsened.
在過去的時代裡，有適當水平的負債總是被視合理的，因為資產可以抵過淡季的收入衰退。但自從2008後再也不是如此。通用汽車(NYSE:GM)的負債壓垮了公司，而被迫破產。同時期還有奇異(NYSE:GE)、福特汽車(NYSE:F)、Hertz (NYSE: HTZ)還有達美樂披蕯(NYSE:DPZ)的股價重跌皆因他們害怕經濟情況惡化而申請破產保護。
Thankfully, many companies wised up and
have been taking steps to strengthen their balance sheets. But not everyone got
the message. Some companies still carry too much debt and might run into
trouble if the U.S.
economy slips back into recession. These companies will need to make large
payments to handle their debt, and right now they are at risk of not having
enough cash to meet potential obligations. Typically, a company can simply roll
over that debt and push out the time frame when debts come due. But a weak
economy would make this task much harder as lenders grow skittish.
可喜的是，許多公司還是學了聰明，開始認真打點自已的資產負債結構。不過有人還不信邪。有些公司仍背負了過多的債務，一但美國的經濟再次下滑衰退，他們將馬上陷入麻煩之中。
That's why it's so important to pay
attention to balance sheets. Lots of debt is only a problem if the debts are
soon coming due. For example, mattress maker Sealy Corp. (NYSE: ZZ) has a very
weak balance sheet, with almost $800 million in debt and less than $100 million
in cash. But management wisely rolled over its debt while it could, and now the
company faces no major repayments until 2014.
這也是為什麼資產負債表值得好好地花心思來研究一下。很多的債務在快到期時就只是一個問題。舉例來說。床墊製造商席伊麗(NYSE:ZZ)就有一個非常糟糕的資產負債表，有接近8億元的負債以及少於1億的現金。但經營層聰明地盡可能地將到期日延後。而現在直到2014年公司都不用面對大筆的償債。
But if a company's "current portion of
long-term debt" -- that is, debts due within the next 12 months -- exceeds
cash on hand, you need to listen to how management plans to address the problem
because these companies could be at risk of failing. I went in search of
companies that may have just such a problem (less cash than near-term loan
obligations). I also added Canadian
media firm Thomson Reuters (NYSE: TRI) to the mix because its weak balance
sheet is just above that threshold. The table below highlights a group of
companies that are at risk of having to declare bankruptcy in 2012 if their
lenders are in no mood to extend them more loans. Take a look...
但是，如果公司的「當前到期之長期負債」--也就是債務將在接下來12個月裡到期— 對照手頭現金，你需要仔細好好聽聽經營層如何計畫面對問題，因為這些公司已在倒閉的風險之中。我研究尋找那些可能已經陷入這樣問題的公司(缺乏現金清償即將到期的債務)。我也加進了加拿大媒體Thomson Reuters (NYSE:
TRI)加以綜合。因為它的資產負債也到達了門檻。下方的表格列出了一群可能陷入危機的公司，若他們的貸款方沒有意願延長他們的負債時，在2012年裡他們將會可能會宣告破產。
company (Ticker)
公司名
|
Market
cap. ($M)
營業額
|
Recent
Price
現價
|
Long-term
debt/total
equity
長期負債比
|
EBIT
interest
coverage
稅前淨利利息覆蓋率
|
Cash
($M)
現金
|
Current
portion of
long-term
debt
($M)
當前到期長期負債
|
Thompson Reuters (TRI)
|
$21,640
|
$26.07
|
41%
|
5.6
|
$589.0
|
$1,083.0
|
Crown Media Holdings (CRWN)
|
$414
|
$1.14
|
306%
|
2.1
|
$21.0
|
$125.4
|
CAI International Inc. (CAP)
|
$296
|
$15.30
|
272%
|
5.1
|
$13.1
|
$79.8
|
Cost Plus (CPWM)
|
$223
|
$9.92
|
135%
|
Neg.
|
$2.9
|
$77.0
|
Ram Energy (RAM)
|
$218
|
$2.75
|
1,212%
|
7.9
|
$0.0
|
$0.4
|
Limoneira Co. (LMNR)
|
$179
|
$16.10
|
167%
|
NM
|
$0.1
|
$2.3
|
Metalico Inc. (MEA)
|
$156
|
$3.31
|
67%
|
2.4
|
$5.9
|
$14.2
|
Great Wolf Resorts (WOLF)
|
$87
|
$2.76
|
331%
|
1.1
|
$38.4
|
$67.8
|
American Apparel (APP)
|
$80
|
$0.77
|
264%
|
Neg.
|
$8.0
|
$57.0
|
John B. Sanfilippo (JBSS)
|
$78
|
$7.34
|
49%
|
4.2
|
$1.7
|
$49.8
|
Dex One (DEXO)
|
$74
|
$1.48
|
42,517%
|
NM
|
$195.4
|
$338.0
|
Inventure Foods Inc. (SNAK)
|
$67
|
$3.62
|
79%
|
Neg.
|
$1.4
|
$3.0
|
Neg. =該公司現產生負現金流
NM =該公司目前未支付利息.
|
This is just a short list. These stocks had
red flags on the balance sheet as of September 30. The current earnings season
may bring more troubled companies into this group. And if the economy slips
into recession, as some -- but not all -- economists anticipate, then the list
will only grow in the coming months.
這只是個簡短的清單。這些股票的資產負債表自從去年9月30之後就開始出現紅旗。而現在的財報週可能會帶來更多惹上麻煩的公司進來這個圑體裡。而且，有一些—但不是全部—經濟學家預測，經濟將會又開始下滑衰退，這張清單恐怕在接下來一個月裡將會暴增。
Some companies may be hard-pressed to avoid
a date with a bankruptcy judge. Take American Apparel (AMEX: APP) as an
example. The company is saddled with more than $100 million in debt, much of
which is slated for repayment in the next few quarters, but it has less than
$10 million in cash on hand. American Apparel generates roughly $70 million in
gross profits every quarter, but has $80 million in quarterly overhead. As the
losses pile up, American Apparel's balance sheet could weaken further.
有些公司可能難以避免破產的審判日來臨， 就拿American Apparel (AMEX: APP)作例子。該公司已經有超過1億以上負債，而裡面大部分需要在接下來幾季裡清償。但他們的手頭現金卻不到1千萬。American Apparel大概每季的毛利大約有7千萬，但每季卻有8千萬的固定成本。更是讓American Apparel的資產負債的未來雪上加霜。
American Apparel has already raised $22
million in fresh cash this year, but that might not be enough to keep the
wolves at bay. Billionaire investor Ron Burkle is one of several investors said
to be looking at acquiring some of the company's debt -- not equity. That's
often a precursor to eventual hostile moves to take control of the company by
calling in debts, wiping out existing shareholders in the process. Short
sellers may also be anticipating an eventual bankruptcy filing, because they
hold more than 5 million shares in short accounts.
American Apparel今年已經增加了2千2百萬的現金，但可能只是杯水車薪。有些投資人，包括億萬富豪Ron Burkle都買進了公司債，而不是普通股。那通常都是為了想要以債權惡意手法控制公司的前兆，過程無需經過任何現有股東。空方作手可能會期待最後破產保護。因為他們已經投入了5百萬在空方帳戶裡。
Even seemingly healthy companies can get
tripped up by a lousy economy. Right now, Thomson Reuters carries a hefty, but
manageable, $7.8 billion in debt. This shouldn't be a problem, as noted by EBIT
coverage of about 5.6 (which means Thomson Reuters' quarterly cash flow is 5.6
times higher than its interest payments). But what if the economy stumbles and
demand for the company's professional-grade subscription services starts to
slump? EBIT coverage would quickly shrink, forcing the company to meet with
lenders to make sure Thomson Reuters doesn't run out of cash. This scenario is
quite unlikely in the next quarter or two, but bears close scrutiny in a
worsening economic environment.
就算是體質健康的公司也可能因為糟糕的經濟而受困。直至今日，Thomson Reuters背負著沉重但尚可管理的78億負債。這應該不算太大的問題。注意EBIT利息蓋率約5.6(代表Thomson Reuters每季現金流是利息支付的5.6倍)。但如果經濟跛腳，再加上因企業專業級的訂閱需求開始下滑呢？EBIT覆蓋率將快速縮水。而公司被迫要與貸款方保證Thomson Reuters的現金足夠。這個情況可能不會在下一、二個季出現，但在經濟惡化下的環境仍要步步為營。
Risks to Consider: Some of these stocks
already trade at levels that suggest imminent financial distress. If they're
able to shore up their weak balance sheets, then short sellers may boost the
stocks by short covering. And as I mentioned earlier, "current portion of
long-term debt" is a good metric to consider, but it isn't perfect. It's
important to realize that this metric only points to increased risk of
financial trouble, and it does not imply that failure is imminent or
inevitable.
風險思考：這些股價等級已經反應了接下來的財務危機。如果他們能改善他們虛弱的資產負債。那麼空頭作手的空頭回補時股價讓會上昇。如我之前提到的「當前到期之長期債」是一個不錯的參考指標，但它並非完美。指數只是點出財務問題的風險，了解這一點很重要。不代表失敗是肯定或必然。
Action to Take: If you own any of the 12
"at risk" stocks we've identified above, then consider selling them
now, because all of them could tumble in a hurry. Instead, we'd suggest looking
at the rare 1% of companies in our coverage universe that fall on the entirely
OPPOSITE end of the spectrum -- financially-stable companies that enjoy some of
the best business models on earth. We call them "Forever" stocks.
These stocks benefit from sustainable competitive advantages, pristine balance
sheets and ample cash flows, and we think you can buy them today and hold for
the rest of your life."
採取行動：如果你持有上述12間裡任一間「風險」股票。那麼考慮現在就脫手。因為他們全都岌岌可危。而我們建議尋找的那廣大市場宇宙中那些完全呈現相反光譜的1%來取代，那些財務健全而有世界最好商業模式的公司。我們稱他們為「永遠持有」股票。這些股票因為能永續發展、具競爭優勢、有清新簡單的資產負債與充足的現金流。所以我們認為你可以今天就買進，並在你接下來的日子裡一直持有。
In fact, when we started to research
"Forever" investments, we discovered something very unusual -- many
of the world's richest, most successful investors, politicians and businessmen
are loading up on "Forever" stocks. For example, one of our favorite
"Forever" stocks has jumped 585% since it went public just a few years
ago, and legendary investors like Warren Buffett are loading up on the stock.
In fact, Buffett has bought more than 9.3 million shares of this
"Forever" stock in recent months.
事實上，當我們開始研究「永遠持有」的投資時，我們發現有些不尋常—許多世上最有錢、最成功的投資者、政客和企業家都在持續增加他們的「永遠」股票。例如說，一間我們喜歡的「永遠持有」股票自從我們幾年前發表後已經上漲了585%。而持有者包括巴菲特也持續在買進。事實上，巴非特已經在近幾個月裡買進了超過930萬的這種「永遠持有」股票。
For more on these stocks -- including
several names and ticker symbols -- we've put together a special presentation
called "The 10 Best Stocks to Hold Forever." Just click on the video
below to watch it right now.
想知道更多這種股票，包括名稱與代號—我們都放在特別專輯「10間最應永久持有的股票」裡。
譯按：以上文章內容，有意者請自行上網搜尋。在此不作商業宣傳
============================================
n
David Sterman
標籤： 社會動態, 翻譯文章
